Thursday, October 8, 2009
October 8th, 2009
The market is probably gap up to the resistance level. This action could possibly complete reversal of this week Monday action. The market was way up during the jobless claims reported. It was almost 100 points gain. Since it was at the resistance level, it had level off a lots. For the bears, we need a close below where its opened today.
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are you going to continue holding the CLF and X shorts?
ReplyDeletegcl, i bought SDS on the jobs number pre-market and will wait first 30 minutes or so to add. I am still thinking, as you, that we may get a reversal off the high today to complet the reversal from Monday as you stated.
ReplyDeleteChad, yes, I am still holding. Actually I like the opening for CLF and X to opened higher. That is a sign of coming down. It is part of trading psychology. The targets for QQQQ and SPY still stand. Trust me on it. Don't trade with your emotions.
ReplyDeleteThe spot Gold was up a lots too this morning. It had level off too. The spot Gold was up 10 earlier in the morning.
ReplyDeletesir you are no longer making calls per se on the mrkt. i don't mean it as a criticsm, but you espouse your education as well as mathematic background thant enables you to perform just these functions. lately when i read your "prognosis" it's really nothing more than a generalization i can read anywhere. you have your admirers and that's nice, but....
ReplyDeletegcl106: yeah, I'm still getting the handle on not trading on emotion and that scared money doesn't make money. I've only been trading for about 6 months.
ReplyDeletethe animal spirits are running amok. How high will they take'm this morning. 1075 on SnP is not out of the question. I will keep a tight stop above that level
ReplyDeleteAre they just filling the gap on SnP and gold, or is this reversal for real? anyone?
ReplyDeletethey filled the gap way too quickly. I would have liked to have seen them take out new highs before the gap fill. oh well. just have to wait n see now. but not liking the early action.
ReplyDeletekeep an eye on GOOG, AAPL, and GS
ReplyDeletethis looks like a bear trap
ReplyDeletebrea, I have nothing against you. Where there is a hero, there is an enemy. There is always the other side of the coin. I have been making calls since day 1 on my blog. All of them were hit except one. Maybe you forgot my quote earlier.
ReplyDelete"Take what the market gives you, not what you think".
You can check my past performances since it was released publicly. I made 10 trades, 6 winners and 4 losers. I make 20% profit in less than 3 weeks.
I welcome you to read my posts. If this blog doesn't help you , then you can just leave. It is free by the way.
I am still long SDS and SPXU and will not be even a little surprised if market rips to new highs again today. oops, slmost there.
ReplyDeleteglad to know you've nothing against me. just pointing out your calls were more prescient and "leading". you offer the service for free and that's in part why i'm here. well aware of my
ReplyDeleteoptions. does one need to agree w/ you constantly? i can see you've got your admirers and that's fine. concensus results in failure.
can't remember the algorythm for that.
So, everyone and their mom likes the weak dollar, strong SnP trade. When does this stop working, today, next week, next month, next year?? At some point, a lot of money will be made on that bet. Until then, the trend is your freind and I am gonna fight it one more day. could this be the "back test" of todays early rally?
ReplyDeleteReaders, earning season is approaching. So the market can be volatile. Personally, I don't like earning season at all. Other investors do. Hang in there.
ReplyDeleteLooks like CLF is retesting it's highs from last week.
ReplyDeleteI just added to my SPXU position at SnP 1070. todays close will tell all about this rally.
ReplyDeleteman, I'm REALLY good at being on the wrong side of every f'n trade I make. -10% on CLF. Think I'm about done with it.
ReplyDeletechad, that's a tough call. you might as well wait until late today to see how they close before you cover. I just shorted a small amount of CLF at 35.4
ReplyDeletechad, if CLF does not roll over today, i would be careful with it (cover). A strong close today would be a break out from a long base.
ReplyDeleteChad, I think you are trading with your emotions. You have to understand how the market works.
ReplyDeleteYes, it seems like the market is going higher. That is what the specialists want you to cover your shorts. Today action I called it "bear in disguise". This whole week is a "dead cat bounce".
If you look back at the chart in October 2007, it is very similar patterns. That was the top of the market before the 2 years crash.
How are we comparing to Oct 1987?
ReplyDeleteOct 19 1987 was a monday after option expiration.
Oct 19 2009 is a monday after option expiration.
Damn, it make me sick to see gold stocks rally with out me. I f'd up that trade big time. will wait for pull back (but may not get one), as gold is well on its way to 1100. Also, supposedly the market breadth indicators have not supported this rally in past week. so, gcl "dead cat bounce" may be at hand as GCL mentioned.
ReplyDeleteAlso Oct 19th, 2007 was a big down day too. Believe me the targets I have for QQQQ and SPY will be hit.
ReplyDeleteAA earning report brought CLF and X up. Look at AA now. It is at the lowest point for today.
gcl, you think your targets for Q's and SPY will hit before ops expiration?
ReplyDeletefor the sake of clarification would you post your targets currently for the q's as well as the spy. as well as your time horizon for those positions.
ReplyDeleteChad, to make you feel better, yesterday, I mentioned that credit card processing sectors, V and MA, were the first ones to broke down. Now the defense stocks are broke down or soon to be broke down. Take a look at LLL, LMT, ORB, BA, NOC.
ReplyDeleteYou will get the ideas.
gcl106: I'm into this stock at -10%. Emotions or not that's a good chunk of money. At what point do you say "Okay, thats enough?"
ReplyDeleteOh, the poor dollar. God Bless Our Poor Country. Joe the Plumbers being robbed blind by U.S. Govt policy, and they do not even know it. Melt up in full force, not looking pretty. I added to my CLF short and will cover at some point today no matter where it goes.
ReplyDeletebrea, I believe the SPY will close where its opened today or lower.
ReplyDeleteAs strong as the rally may seem, it is not much higher than the pre-market trading this morning (yet). Not sure how they will close, but my money is probably against the odds looking for a bit of a sell-off.
ReplyDeleteHey, my buddy Rick S. on CNBC is selling my story about US$ weakness. He is the only guy on this station that I have any respect for. He is a true american and a brilliant mind of the markets
ReplyDeletegcl thank you for the response. seems mrkt is $
ReplyDeleteoriented now w/ oil,gld following. would like to short this FRAUD, but timing is everything! waiting for an overbought condition to short large! should correct and backfill gaps ALL OVER
the map. testing my patience to be sure. try to wait for extremes. aka "blowoff top"!
appreciate your thoughts
brea, you are a bigger man than I. You have the right idea and it is sooo hard to sit and wait.
ReplyDeleteJDT: I think after the reaming I've taken, I'm going to be doing more waiting. I had a great run up in 3 months netting almost 60% profits. Now I'm down to 10% trying to learn trading in a crazy market.
ReplyDeletetrading is not easy and not an exact science. I will admit, I shorted CLF because I could sense your pain. I basically used your emotions to make my entry. If I make $ on it, I owe you one:)
ReplyDeleteThanks, that makes me feel so much better. I'm determined to get better at this. And I'm feeling the pain on X too, but only about 1/2 as much. I did cover half my CLF.
ReplyDeleteChad, btw, I felt almost as much pain by missing the gold trade this past week. sometimes missing a good trade is more painful than losing $
ReplyDeleteI know that. I missed about 600% on CAR when I bought it in may and let my emotions sell it with 58% in 2 days instead of 650% in 90.
ReplyDeleteSo educate me a little if you don't mind. What technical indicators do you look at on your charts? I've got MACD and RSI that I've been using for a couple months.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I'm reading them correct, but it looks more like it's in a bullish trend then bearish.
I covered my over night LOSER SPXU this morning around 10:00 am when it hit the low near the low SPY ..
ReplyDeletewas in at $45.95.
Got out at $44.29.
if I didn't get out.. I'd be holding a loser for the next few days, raking up more losses.. been there, TIRED OF IT. It paralyzes me. sometimes I would double down, but never get back to even.
I should have went long as I expected something of a run up again.. but I waited..needed a break. so now I'm short again spxu @ 43.25.
not expecting much of a downside.. looking for something to get near open on SPY and bail as GCL106 has pointed out.
and I'm definitely not going to try not to hold overnight again on a short when the trend is up. :(
well, this explains most of my problems and what i'm trying to do to fix it. it might not work in your situation.
it's just hard to pick the extreme top..especially on gap'n'go's which becomes some what impossible. I think those are more the exception and will burn me when they happen.
I mostly just look at volume and price action. Like I said, for me it is not an exact science. i covered half my CLF at 35.28
ReplyDeleteIn the past I used MACD and RSI too. There are unreliable indicators. There used opening, high, low and closing prices each day. Sometimes the specialists can manipulate the data. Then it screwed up the indicators.
ReplyDeletePrice action, resistance, support and gaps are the focus points for me. I don't use fundamentals at all. Since I am doing this for short term, I don't care about it.
I don't like earning reports, unannounced events or news at all. There are the X-factors that can change the market.
AAPL, GOOG, and GS at lows...finally
ReplyDeleteWe still have not broken the five day uptrend line on the hourly chart. that would be soo sweet.
ReplyDeleteis the dollar ever gonna bounce? short the dollar had got to be the most crowded trade in recent memory
ReplyDeleteanyone.....need some encouragement here.
ReplyDeleteOh, yeah. GS and JPM and BAC hitting lows. That is a great sign if you are short
ReplyDeletelots of cross currents. financial tanking and money flowing into commodity stocks.
ReplyDeleteDamn this market is brutal and strong. oil and gold on a tear, pulling up averages.
ReplyDeleteamen to that Matt. the whole f'n thing is a total charade and a joke, but you need to get on right side of it and ride the big boys coat tails. a hell of a lot easier said than done.
ReplyDeletestrong?? it's POMO day....it's all BS and will come tumbling down.
ReplyDeleteSo, the market is gonna rally into the close with financial getting slammed??? I have almost seen it all now:)
ReplyDeletekill it JDT.....well, not too much, waiting on transfers to get more short....
ReplyDeletewe topped Sept 23rd, that is my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
NASDAQ breaking down. I'm sure they will try to buyem up to the close to support uptrend.
ReplyDeleteThe market is bouncing off the opening every times. If the market closes at or below where its opened, it is very good sign for the bears.
ReplyDeleteGCL, you like any female sports reporters?
ReplyDeleteout of CLF. closing SPXU, but good chance of a gap down in market tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI hope i can get a decent entry tomorrow. this thing is ready to roll
ReplyDeleteThis is what I expected. Closed at or below the opening. You just witnessed the textbook classic "dead cat bounce". This pattern is very similar to October 2007.
ReplyDeleteWas it fun or nerve wrecking today?
Sorry about X and CLF. The AA earnings jumped these stocks. It will go back down with the market. AA is much lower than its opening. The big name companies, GS, AAPL, GOOG, closed at the low today. Today was the best opportunities to short.
ReplyDeleteIT WAS F ING NERVE RACKING.....
ReplyDeleteErin Andrews is a babe!!
I may have to short a gap down tomorrow. scary
ReplyDeletespy up after hours.. short now ;)
ReplyDeletey'all know we got a small change in mclennan oscillator yesterday....typically indicates big move coming. thought it might be the up move today but maybe the big down move tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteFYI, QCOM broke down couple weeks ago. Watch BRCM chart. This week was a dead cat bounce for BRCM and finally today broke down. Expect similar result with the general market.
ReplyDeleteYou will expect more and more individual stocks follow the similar patterns. Some are ahead and some are behind.
ReplyDeletegcl, thanks for the heads up on BRCM, could be a good one!!
ReplyDelete