Friday, February 26, 2010

February 26th, 2010

Today is the last day of trading in February.

The last two trading days were out of ordinary trading.

Carefully looking at the charts, the market could be in a tight range for couple days.

I am watching AMZN, AAPL and GOOG closely. If these three decides which direction to go, then the market will go with it.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

February 25, 2010

Northeast area is having another big snowstorm.
The snow from the first two snowstorms didn't melt all the way yet and here comes the third one.

The market gapped down more than 100 points. If it trades like this after 10:00 AM, it will close over 100 points down today.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

February 24th, 2010

This was so nice that the market gapped higher this morning.

It did three reasons that I like for shorts.

1. The market retraced back up where it broke down yesterday morning.
2. There is a morning gap this morning. The market will likely close that gap.
3. The market will likely closed lower than it's opened. It will formed a black bar.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

February 23rd, 2010

So far my predictions are coming true.

GLD hitting 109.50 to 110.00
VIX hitting 18 to 19 area.

Yesterday 3:00 PM selloff ( very close) and around that time it could be the top for this week.

I would expect SPY to hit 108 again. This means SPXU is very close to 38.5 to 39 area. There is a gap there.

USO will probably hit 36 to 37 area again.

Monday, February 22, 2010

February 22nd , 2010

So far the targets that I mentioned had hit.

GLD at 109.50 to 110.00
VIX at 18 to 19 area.

This week the market will be down.

Friday, February 19, 2010

February 19th, 2010

The spot gold and gold stocks pullback after a nice runup in the last few weeks.

The U.S. dollar currency is breaking out.

I am expecting USO to hit 36 to 37 area again.

I am expecting SPY to hit 108 again.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

February 18th, 2010

This is a great opportunity to short from this level.

The market just had its relieved rally.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

February 17th, 2010

Some stocks are double top. Some others are not participating with the rally. The rest are just tagging along with it.

Always short on the rally.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

February 16th, 2010

GLD had hit my target at 109.50 area.

There are some individual stocks are heading backup.

If SPY stays and closes above the 13 day moving average, the market is heading back up.

Few weeks ago, I mentioned this pattern could micmic the same pattern from last June and July timeframe. This is early to tell yet.

Monday, February 15, 2010

February 15th, 2010

Today the market is closed.

Here is what I think about the market right now.

Last year, the SPY didn't spend too much time in 106 to 107 area. So in the past few weeks or so, SPY spend time in that area. SPY is ready to make a move. The question is which direction.

My guess will be up. During that two days big drop from 115 to 109, SPY needs to retrace back up in 3 point progressive move, 106, 109, 112, 115. The 106 is the strong support level. There was a gap between 109 to 110. The 112 was the breakout point not too long ago. The 115 was the top.

Again I am closely watching USO, spot gold, Dollar and VIX.

The USO could bounce back up to 39.
The DXY (dollar currency) could drop back down to 78.5, the breakout level.
The spot gold (GLD) could hit 109.5 to 110.
I am expecting VIX to retrace back down to 19 area.

Friday, February 12, 2010

February 12th, 2010

Next Monday the market will be closed.

The market gapped down from the opening.

If the market closes to flat even line or higher, the market will continue to go higher from here.
If the market closes to where its opened today, the market is still deciding which direction to go.
If the market closes 100 points or more down, the market is heading down.

Watch how the market closes the morning gap. This is the crucial area.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

February 11th, 2010

Northeast had the two big snow storms within a week.

I have to dig myself out of it. Not many people are at work today.

The traders are sitting and waiting for the market to decide which direction to go.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

February 10th, 2010

So far the market is trading above the Friday low.

Yesterday action was pretty neutral for the bears and bulls. The market did closed around 150 points higher, but it closed where it's opened.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

February 9th, 2010

The specialists are at his bests yesterday late afternoon.

Right from the start the market counter attack the loss from yesterday sell off. The shorts who shorted during the afternoon sell off got trapped or not.

It is past 10:00 AM and the market is hovering around yesterday high. Will it fill the morning gap?

Monday, February 8, 2010

February 8th, 2010

I am back in my office.

Where are we in the market?

This weekend finally I was able to analyze the market more closely for the past week.
On Thursday and Friday the market had panic selling. SPY broke down below 106 level, but it rebounded back above it and close above it. The market is at a major support. The bulls will give the bears a fight here.

I would expect SPY trade between 104.58 (Friday low) and 109 range this week. If SPY trades above 104.58 this week and it has 3 out 5 days are white bars, then you could expect the market will trade back up. There were lots of stop losses right below 106 level last Friday. The specialists triggered all those stop loses and that why SPY went down to 104.58. Then the specialists brought SPY back up.

For bulls perspective, the SPY needs to maintain above 106 level. Most individual stocks are at the major support level. SPY could retest 104.58 to 105 level again. As long as it doesn't make lower low (104.58) this week, the bulls will win the fight. Watch for clues on these stocks.

GOOG support level: 520
X support level: 42
AMZN support level: 115
USO support level: 35

For bears perspective, the market is still in downtrend in short term and the 13 day moving average is point downward. The volume is huge for down days than up days.

Two things to look very closely:
1. The VIX had trouble breaking out of 30 area. The 30 resistance level is the crucial point.
2. The market pattern this year could mimic the same pattern from last year of June and July.

Friday, February 5, 2010

February 5th, 2010

GLD broke down below 105 to 106 area.
USO broke down below 35 to 36 area.

The U.S dollar currency continue to rise, but it is approaching overbought area.

The SPY closed the gap between 106 and 107 area from last year.

I will be back to my office next week.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

February 4th, 2010

The GLD had breached below 105 to 106 level.

The U.S. dollar currency continues to rise higher.

The market is in the correction phase unless the market make a dramatic reverse back up this afternoon.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

February 3rd, 2010

The market is in the middle of the road. It could go either way.

Watch GOOG closely. Today GOOG could possibly hit the bottom of a minor pullback.
USO bounced off from 35 and 36 area nicely.

The dollar currency is continuing to rise.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

February 2nd, 2010

The only time I can post today was after hour.

The market bounced off from the strong support level at 106 to 107 for QQQQ. Also USO bounced off from 35 to 36 area. The last two trading days was very encouraging for the bulls. But is this rally for real or headfake? Also the spot gold bounced off from 105 to 106 area.

I wish that I can hold my GLD and SPXU for more gains. From what I learned from the past is that when I am on travel, I should never have any open positions. No loss and no pain, but no gain and no profit.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Februray 1st, 2010

This week I will be on business travel. Fortunately, my departure time is this afternoon. So this morning that I am able to trade.

Is there a correction coming for the market? The way I am seeing right now, I am not sure. I am playing this by ear. There is a huge gap for SPY between 106 and 107. If the market bounces off this level very strongly, then the market is ready for the next leg. If it breaks below it, then the market is in the correction phase. Again, look for clues.

Watch for oil play, check out USO. If USO bounces off from 35 and 36 level, then it is very likely the SPY will bounces off from 106 to 107 level.