Last week, I mentioned that SPY at 104.20 was an intermediate step. Also I mentioned that SPY had a chance to hit 104.90 area again. The QQQQ was the laggard. Maybe QQQQ will hit 41.57.
Shorts and longs beware. The market could go either way.
Most sites stated that the market is "confirmed" downtrend. I disagree with that. For my criteria for "confirmed" downtrend is the market has to close below the 50 day moving average and the 50 day moving average is pointing downward.
GLD had hit 52 week high at 100.80. Will it break and close above it? Or will it go back down to close the gap one more time and then continue to go back up?
Today may be the day that the SnP decouples from the week dollar. In the long run, a weak dollar is terrible for our country. The dollar going down and gold hitting all time highs is not a positive development.
I will be the first one to say here. Few minutes ago, the market had hit the top for today. SPY at 105.66 and QQQQ at 42.02. The market is at the resistance level.
S. Mantra, so far so good on your call. gcl, good call on rally in SnP and QQQQ. i am about to blow out of my SPXU postition. gonna hold on a bit longer, but not looking good. Where is my reversal???
1. If SPY closes above 105 today, stay long, but be careful. This scenario is 40% possibility. 2. If SPY closes between 104.75 to 105, the market is undecided which direction to go. 10% possibility. 3. If SPY closes below 104.75, the market will reverse and go back down. 50% possibility.
The possibilities are my estimation of hitting it.
You either believe it or not. Most of my targets had been hit on SPY and QQQQ so far except one time. Lots of investors doubted me about my previous targets on SPY and QQQQ. Guess what, I was right.
The individual stocks has its own personalities. The targets for them are very hard to come up with.
Low volume tells me that majority don't believe in this rally. Which means they are on the sidelines, or shorted and going to cover at higher prices, or waiting for higher price to go short. When you see higher volume, and parabolic type move then it is time for short. But right now go along for the ride to upside.Just my opinion.
Oh, I believe. I have a huge SPXU position and am 75 cents out of the money and really do not want to have to book a big loser on it, as it is a day trade. So, here is to looking for an intraday reversal. cheers
Don't buy gold stocks yet. Gold stocks needs to fill the today morning gap at some points. That means the market will fill the today morning gap at some points.
Every times SPY broke above 105, it went straight up to 106. Every times SPY broke down below 106, it went straight down to 105. My individual picks , X and CLF, are looking great.
JDT, now do you believe my SPY next target at 102.60 area. When I put out target for QQQQ and SPY, they are not random numbers. There are some reasons or logic behind it. I warned everyone that this rally is not real.
I chose X and CLF because these stocks didn't really rally with the market at all today.
It will be good if the market closes below where its opened. I will be real happy if the market go unchanged at the close.
gcl, of course I believe you. I was short well before you made your statement. I was just happy to see you jump on board. thus, my statement, "are you just trying to make me feel better", b/c I was 75 cents out of money at the time. I hope the 102.6 comes true, the reversal looks good so far.
gcl, picking stocks to short that do not rally with the market is a great way to make money. i need to start doing that again, as it is sometimes mentally difficult to short the weak ones, but it is the correct thing to do.
For those investors who missed the shorting opportunities this morning, you have another chance this afternoon. The afternoon rally was a successful retracement back up. If it didn't do that today, it will do tomorrow. It is part of trading psychology.
Wow, how about GOOG and AAPL? momo's are back in force. what a joke. I watch Cramer every once in a while just to laugh at his nonsense and to go against his calls. he is a blabbering idiot to the 10th degree.
S. Mantra, ok, was not sure if it was double or triple. I noticed SRS was strong today. It is wicked, I cannot imagine how wild DRV must be? I will keep an eye on it. thnx.
I am out. hope to get back in tomorrow. I only made $750 today on a huge position. Not very good risk/reward, but definitely had to earn it with lots of trades. Only traded SPXU today.
gcl, don't get me wrong, I am super happy to make a little money. It's just that I took a lot of risk and not a very good return for that risk. IF SPXU had rallied to flat today I would have crushed it. It is a game of inches.
JDT, I guess that you are a full time trader or day trader.
$750 is more than anyone made in a day.
I am giving out a wild guess tomorrow opening. I have never done this before. Here goes. The market will probably open -20 to +20 points or very flat tomorrow.
hi gcl, day trading is not for me, too risky, and the direction can be any. i prefer to look for stocks for period of 1-many weeks in order to get more profit. the big question is how to find this stocks. i was muathe subscriber for some time with good stock picks, but last months he had destroyed his subscribers by selecting terrible picks and ask his subscribers to remove any stop loss. if this blog could be also for recommendation for breakout stocks (short or long) it could be idle. what is your opinion ?
shulin, how much do you pay for the subscription? Look, you have been reading my posts for a long time. You probably have a good feeling of me how I trade. The market is constantly changing. As you can see from my public open trades, my losses are less than 1%. Sometimes emotions can real get in the way. Don't buy 2x or 3x ETFs or options. Keep it simple.
Some investors are going for a homerun. I go for singles.
The current trend is still up. The market hadn't dropped below 50 day moving average and the 50 day moving average is not pointing down.
This week and next week are crucial to see if the market can bounce off the 50 day moving average or go below it. Today action the market bounced off from 13 day moving average from above and it did chipped away the 200 points loss day from last week.
Shorts and longs beware. The market could go either way.
ReplyDeleteMost sites stated that the market is "confirmed" downtrend. I disagree with that. For my criteria for "confirmed" downtrend is the market has to close below the 50 day moving average and the 50 day moving average is pointing downward.
QQQQ had hit 41.57 target and SPY had hit 104.90 area and it is back in the 105 area.
ReplyDeleteI just went long SPXU. will add to it if market starts to roll over.
ReplyDelete41.57 target for QQQQ was an intermediate step. Will QQQQ hit my final target at 41.85.
ReplyDeleteQQQQ had hit 41.85 target. All my targets had been hit. The market is very close to the top of the day. Get ready to short.
ReplyDeleteGLD had hit 52 week high at 100.80. Will it break and close above it? Or will it go back down to close the gap one more time and then continue to go back up?
ReplyDeleteToday may be the day that the SnP decouples from the week dollar. In the long run, a weak dollar is terrible for our country. The dollar going down and gold hitting all time highs is not a positive development.
ReplyDeleteVolume is low. Trend to continue. SPY to close above 106.
ReplyDeleteyour no longer making calls
ReplyDeleteyour asking for them
S. Mantra, I hope you are wrong. I am short and will hold until new day highs on SPY
ReplyDeleteI will be the first one to say here. Few minutes ago, the market had hit the top for today. SPY at 105.66 and QQQQ at 42.02. The market is at the resistance level.
ReplyDeleteI would not be surprised to hear a bs statement from the FEDS supporting a "strong" dollar policy today.
ReplyDeleteS. Mantra, so far so good on your call. gcl, good call on rally in SnP and QQQQ. i am about to blow out of my SPXU postition. gonna hold on a bit longer, but not looking good. Where is my reversal???
ReplyDeleteHere is the scope.
ReplyDelete1. If SPY closes above 105 today, stay long, but be careful. This scenario is 40% possibility.
2. If SPY closes between 104.75 to 105, the market is undecided which direction to go. 10% possibility.
3. If SPY closes below 104.75, the market will reverse and go back down. 50% possibility.
The possibilities are my estimation of hitting it.
Are we gonna get a 100 point day in gold today?? wow, what a break out. will it hold?
ReplyDeleteOops, I was wrong about the calling the top of today.
ReplyDeletegcl, we are getting a good old fashioned short squeeze.
ReplyDeleteI have a new target for SPY now. SPY will hit 102.6 target. It means today action is not real. It will reverse back down today or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI have just shorted CLF at 33.25 and X 43.30.
ReplyDeleteI've got a bad feeling about this rally. still looking for an intraday reversal. shorts are scrambling, but are there any "new" buyers?
ReplyDeletegcl, just saw your SPY target. Are you just trying to make me feel better:)
ReplyDeleteYou either believe it or not. Most of my targets had been hit on SPY and QQQQ so far except one time. Lots of investors doubted me about my previous targets on SPY and QQQQ. Guess what, I was right.
ReplyDeleteThe individual stocks has its own personalities. The targets for them are very hard to come up with.
Low volume tells me that majority don't believe in this rally. Which means they are on the sidelines, or shorted and going to cover at higher prices, or waiting for higher price to go short. When you see higher volume, and parabolic type move then it is time for short. But right now go along for the ride to upside.Just my opinion.
ReplyDeleteOh, I believe. I have a huge SPXU position and am 75 cents out of the money and really do not want to have to book a big loser on it, as it is a day trade. So, here is to looking for an intraday reversal. cheers
ReplyDeleteS. Mantra. i like your contrarian thinking. there are a lot of shorts on this latest pullback. i hope you are wrong on the end of day squeeze.
ReplyDeleteWill be back around 3PM
ReplyDeleteThe QQQQ is forming a head and shoulder pattern intraday. It is trying to complete the right shoulder.
ReplyDeleteGS hitting lows, will it continue or reverse? and SRS just hit high of day (EQR is weak)
ReplyDeleteSo, if #3, we would only risk holding overnight short if we close below 104.75?
ReplyDeleteelse if we are #2, if we close above 104.75, cover the short.
Don't buy gold stocks yet. Gold stocks needs to fill the today morning gap at some points. That means the market will fill the today morning gap at some points.
ReplyDeleteSKF and SRS have broken above their downtrend line on the hourly from past three days
ReplyDeleteI sold 25% of my SPXU position into this rally. I will hold the rest, but had a huge position and wanted to lighten up.
ReplyDeletei want to close mine out too..
ReplyDeletekind of hard to believe we really dropped back this low.
i'm at 45.15 on spxu
I just sold another 25%. Holding half. Made a decent profit, so want to lock in some in case market rallies into close
ReplyDeleteDamn, gcl, looking good on CLF and X
ReplyDeleteEvery times SPY broke above 105, it went straight up to 106. Every times SPY broke down below 106, it went straight down to 105. My individual picks , X and CLF, are looking great.
ReplyDeletegcl, did you sell the "weakness" in CLF and X, i mean, did you wait until they hit new low of day or broke intraday trend line?
ReplyDeletetoo afraid to hold a nice winner overnight (but i always managed to hold losers for days only to lose more).
ReplyDeletei bailed spxu @ 46.15.
will reenter slowly today if spy go back to 105 for overnight light hold.
JDT, now do you believe my SPY next target at 102.60 area. When I put out target for QQQQ and SPY, they are not random numbers. There are some reasons or logic behind it. I warned everyone that this rally is not real.
ReplyDeleteI chose X and CLF because these stocks didn't really rally with the market at all today.
It will be good if the market closes below where its opened. I will be real happy if the market go unchanged at the close.
gcl, of course I believe you. I was short well before you made your statement. I was just happy to see you jump on board. thus, my statement, "are you just trying to make me feel better", b/c I was 75 cents out of money at the time. I hope the 102.6 comes true, the reversal looks good so far.
ReplyDeletegcl, picking stocks to short that do not rally with the market is a great way to make money. i need to start doing that again, as it is sometimes mentally difficult to short the weak ones, but it is the correct thing to do.
ReplyDeletereentered light spxu at 45.379 for overnight (unless it runs up into close with big sell off, then i'll take it today).
ReplyDeleteBought some DRV
ReplyDeletedoubled up
ReplyDeletespxu 45.25 now.
S. Mantra, what is DRV double or triple inverse?
ReplyDeleteFor those investors who missed the shorting opportunities this morning, you have another chance this afternoon. The afternoon rally was a successful retracement back up. If it didn't do that today, it will do tomorrow. It is part of trading psychology.
ReplyDeleteWho watches Cramer and Fast Money on CNBC?
ReplyDeleteUltra short triple real estate
ReplyDeleteWow, how about GOOG and AAPL? momo's are back in force. what a joke. I watch Cramer every once in a while just to laugh at his nonsense and to go against his calls. he is a blabbering idiot to the 10th degree.
ReplyDeleteS. Mantra, ok, was not sure if it was double or triple. I noticed SRS was strong today. It is wicked, I cannot imagine how wild DRV must be? I will keep an eye on it. thnx.
ReplyDeleteNow the SPY spend some time in the 105ish. The big names, AAPL, GOOG and AMZN are heavily shorted. You just see some short squeeze.
ReplyDeleteI am out. hope to get back in tomorrow. I only made $750 today on a huge position. Not very good risk/reward, but definitely had to earn it with lots of trades. Only traded SPXU today.
ReplyDeleteProfits are profits. It is better than a loss. It was a good trading day. Both longs and shorts won today.
ReplyDeletegcl, don't get me wrong, I am super happy to make a little money. It's just that I took a lot of risk and not a very good return for that risk. IF SPXU had rallied to flat today I would have crushed it. It is a game of inches.
ReplyDeleteJDT, I guess that you are a full time trader or day trader.
ReplyDelete$750 is more than anyone made in a day.
I am giving out a wild guess tomorrow opening.
I have never done this before. Here goes.
The market will probably open -20 to +20 points or very flat tomorrow.
hi gcl, day trading is not for me, too risky, and the direction can be any.
ReplyDeletei prefer to look for stocks for period of 1-many weeks in order to get more profit.
the big question is how to find this stocks.
i was muathe subscriber for some time with good stock picks, but last months he had destroyed his subscribers by selecting terrible picks and ask his subscribers to remove any stop loss.
if this blog could be also for recommendation for breakout stocks (short or long) it could be idle.
what is your opinion ?
I am very thankful to have cleared more today than $750 ;)
ReplyDeleteJust wish I wouldn't take those $2k+ multiday losses when I do.
shulin, how much do you pay for the subscription?
ReplyDeleteLook, you have been reading my posts for a long time. You probably have a good feeling of me how I trade. The market is constantly changing. As you can see from my public open trades, my losses are less than 1%. Sometimes emotions can real get in the way. Don't buy 2x or 3x ETFs or options. Keep it simple.
Some investors are going for a homerun. I go for singles.
ReplyDeleteThe current trend is still up. The market hadn't dropped below 50 day moving average and the 50 day moving average is not pointing down.
This week and next week are crucial to see if the market can bounce off the 50 day moving average or go below it. Today action the market bounced off from 13 day moving average from above and it did chipped away the 200 points loss day from last week.