Two things to watch out for today. On the downside, watch SPY at 110.50. If SPY breaks 110.50, then it could go down to 109.5 level. On the upside, watch the market how it closes the morning gap.
the way I have been trading, I will probably get my ass handed to me...but, I just do not see the big boyz crashing this thing yet. holidays, end of year, yada, yada. looking for a bounce back to at least to todays open. with all the quant trading and black box trading, it seems gap n go is the new mantra
1. If SPY breaks below 109, SPY could retest 108 again if it doesn't fill the morning gap. Once it hits 108 level, then it could go back up to today morning gap. 2. If SPY fills today morning gap, then it will go back down to 108 level.
Right now it is depends on which hit first, 108 level or fill today morning gap.
Behavior can tracked in volume. That is what I am trying to read from MFI. Money Flow Index which is calculated using volume is wayyy above from RSI number for SPY. Right now for 12 bar daily chart MFI is 83 and RFI 54. It needs to correct before it could go up. This market is so much overbougt right now, it may even test 103 before it could move up. My first target is 107.4 to fill the gap. Please make your own DD
Below chart gives the latest numbers numbers for MFI and RSI for 12-bar daily. You can adjust these charts for your liking. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY#chart4:symbol=spy;range=6m;indicator=rsi(12)+mfi(12);charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
S. Mantra, I sold my SSO position, but will say so far there is a very large volume candle on the hourly for SSO at todays low, and they may try to rally them here to flat or into gap. if no rally comes, then all the buy the dipsters will get hammered as the market goes much lower. TRIN still looks very bearish, TICK has bounced and is looking stronger.
buying SPXU and TZA here. either a lunch time bounce in market or a reversal. not sure yet, but I'm gonna try to stay short. Dollar has been selling off pretty hard though
well, now that I am short, I sure hope they can take market to new lows. If so, the buyers from past three days that got caught with morning gap are gonna panic and the day traders trying to pick a bottom today will also have to sell. but if we do not hit new lows, no heavy selling will occur
I am sticking to my analysis. Even if marking wants to go new highs, it needs new blood. So it will correct to 1070 minimum. I will analyze then for further direction.
S. Mantra, we need SPG to roll back over for DRV to work. It is the heaviest weighting in SRS and probably for DRV as well. AVB and PSA still hitting lows. so...maybe.
If the market opens flat today and it goes down to where it is now, the market will continue to go down in short term. Unfortunately, it gapped down in the morning and it went down from it.
yeah, gcl, almost impossible to make money short today. i put on some small short positions in pre-market and got out of them in first 30 minutes. went long and flatted that trade and now losing money shorting on the early lunch bounce. gonna give it to end of day, I think. but, man, this sucks today. we have done nothing since gap down and initial sell-off.
i have a meeting today from 11:30-1:30..
ReplyDeleteso i'm not playing today :(
coclo
I am long SSO here at 36.78. lord help me. I hate going long this bloated market
ReplyDeletethe way I have been trading, I will probably get my ass handed to me...but, I just do not see the big boyz crashing this thing yet. holidays, end of year, yada, yada. looking for a bounce back to at least to todays open. with all the quant trading and black box trading, it seems gap n go is the new mantra
ReplyDelete109.5 level had been hit for SPY. The market could drop down to 108 level or bounce back up to fill the morning gap.
ReplyDeleteWell, we filled one gap from a few days ago. Man, that housing news was terrible. this economy is screwed. Did I mention I hate being long!!!
ReplyDeleteGCL, what was your rule about down 100 in the first 30 mins?
ReplyDeleteWhat's the percentage again?
I think it was like 80% of the time market would close lower if gap was not filled in first 30 mins.
ReplyDeletewow, TRIN is through the roof this morning. I am gonna lighten up on my SSO into any bounce.
ReplyDeleteMatt, 80%. One way or another.
ReplyDelete1. If SPY breaks below 109, SPY could retest 108 again if it doesn't fill the morning gap. Once it hits 108 level, then it could go back up to today morning gap.
2. If SPY fills today morning gap, then it will go back down to 108 level.
Right now it is depends on which hit first, 108 level or fill today morning gap.
From now on, listen to Meredith Whitney. She is right 2 out of 2 when she speaks in public.
ReplyDeleteStay short. Chances are we are going to 107 if not today by tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteS. Mantra. Why are you so confident of 107?? options related??
ReplyDeleteBehavior can tracked in volume. That is what I am trying to read from MFI. Money Flow Index which is calculated using volume is wayyy above from RSI number for SPY. Right now for 12 bar daily chart MFI is 83 and RFI 54. It needs to correct before it could go up. This market is so much overbougt right now, it may even test 103 before it could move up. My first target is 107.4 to fill the gap. Please make your own DD
ReplyDeleteBelow chart gives the latest numbers numbers for MFI and RSI for 12-bar daily. You can adjust these charts for your liking.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY#chart4:symbol=spy;range=6m;indicator=rsi(12)+mfi(12);charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
S. Mantra, I sold my SSO position, but will say so far there is a very large volume candle on the hourly for SSO at todays low, and they may try to rally them here to flat or into gap. if no rally comes, then all the buy the dipsters will get hammered as the market goes much lower. TRIN still looks very bearish, TICK has bounced and is looking stronger.
ReplyDeleteBought some DRV at 16.70
ReplyDeletebuying SPXU and TZA here. either a lunch time bounce in market or a reversal. not sure yet, but I'm gonna try to stay short. Dollar has been selling off pretty hard though
ReplyDeletewell, now that I am short, I sure hope they can take market to new lows. If so, the buyers from past three days that got caught with morning gap are gonna panic and the day traders trying to pick a bottom today will also have to sell. but if we do not hit new lows, no heavy selling will occur
ReplyDeleteThe market is trading in no man's land. It can go either way. The market had unfinished business to do on the upside and the downside.
ReplyDelete1. SPY hadn't fill the gap around 108.
2 SPY and QQQQ didn't fill the morning gap from this morning.
3. QQQQ still have a morning gap from yesterday.
If today the SPY breaks above 109.75, it could go back up and fill the morning gap. If SPY breaks below 109, 108 will be next in the horizon.
ReplyDeleteI am sticking to my analysis. Even if marking wants to go new highs, it needs new blood. So it will correct to 1070 minimum. I will analyze then for further direction.
ReplyDeleteTypo "marking" should read as Market
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, baby! Sell 'em! Sell 'em hard into the close!! If that's all the bounce they've got, market is in trouble (at least for today)
ReplyDeleteStill have not broken down from lows earlier today. Strong lil bastard.
ReplyDeleteGold stocks are coming back up.
ReplyDeleteGold miners have been on fire all day!
ReplyDeleteOh chit, here comes the rally. same chit, different day. all you gotta do is buy'em and let the big boyz take care of business.
ReplyDeleteC'mon dollar, don't let me down (again). show some grit
ReplyDeleteThere is zero fear in this market.
ReplyDelete"There is zero fear in this market."
ReplyDeleteThat is what needed to go down. Staying short.
S. Mantra, we need SPG to roll back over for DRV to work. It is the heaviest weighting in SRS and probably for DRV as well. AVB and PSA still hitting lows. so...maybe.
ReplyDeleteAlso, so far, the market overall is very weak compared to the very small amount of strength in the Dollar. kind of a decoupling today
ReplyDeleteIf the market opens flat today and it goes down to where it is now, the market will continue to go down in short term. Unfortunately, it gapped down in the morning and it went down from it.
ReplyDeleteyeah, gcl, almost impossible to make money short today. i put on some small short positions in pre-market and got out of them in first 30 minutes. went long and flatted that trade and now losing money shorting on the early lunch bounce. gonna give it to end of day, I think. but, man, this sucks today. we have done nothing since gap down and initial sell-off.
ReplyDeletei just put in some market on close orders for 1/3 of my positions. Hope we do not get a super spike into close today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/post-lehman-deja-vu-t-bill-yields-turn-negative
ReplyDeletethat was pathetic
ReplyDelete