Sometimes I wrote my first post for each day can be late. There were times that I have a meeting in the morning on my job. I will try to write my first post each day before the market opens.
This morning, QQQQ, finally, hit the target at 39.07. I had this target 2 weeks ago. It could have hit it sooner if there was no Bernanke's speech and that Friday with option expiration day. We can put that target in the coffin. The target for QQQQ is still stand at 39.80 for a bounce back up.
Until financials can turn around I don't see market moving higher in a real meaningful way. Daily technicals for financials (XLF) showing weakness. There is a gap between 13.02 and 13.16 to the downside. This selloff needs to take XLF to that area. I believe we will reach there by Tuesday.
Regarding my comment yesterday, gold diverged from the equity markets, but still it seems to be in no man's land. Daily, weekly or monthly charts don't show any clear bullish signals.
Yesterday the market dropped a lots. Today it dropped down to my old target at 39.07 for QQQQ. It bounced back up from there. For shorts, don't get the party started yet. Yesterday was very encouraging day, but I have a hunch the bulls will not give up. There is a possibility that the market could form a base here, trading sideway. If QQQQ bounces back up to 39.80, it could go way back up to 40.30 area.
The bears and bulls battled in the tight range. Who won today? I have to give it to the bulls. Here's why. 1. The bulls stop the strong momentum down from yesterday. 2. SPY almost closed where its opened. 3. QQQQ closed higher than its opened. 4. The VIX is down. 5. The dollar is down.
gcl, I have to disagree with you. When dollar is down that should be bullish for stocks. Stocks are still down, they could not bounce even 1/4 of what they lost yesterday. They may eventually bounce, but I see more selling pressure, when all the economic reportsare coming "better than expected". I would not buy into this market at this point even for trading (holding) for few hours.
Sure Mantra, I see you points. I am talking about today action, not forseeable future. Let me tell you about one trap that investors don't get it. When stocks are down, it didn't mean the bears won. It usually the bears won in most cases. Today it is not. Vice Versa. Like I said, don't be too bias on side. If the momentum is strong yesterday, why it didn't continue to go down farther. The bulls were able to pause the momemtum. Beside gold stocks were up, there are other stocks were up too. C, RIMM, VMW, QCOM, POT, IPI and others.
Sure Mantra, sometimes you can't look at the closing price of the market by itself. You have to look at the price action during the day.
Let me give you examples. If the market closed 100 points down, is it automatically a bear mode?
Not in these cases. 1. Opened 100 points down, went lower more than 200 points during the day and climb back up to closed at 100 point down. 2. Opened much lower (more than 200 points) and climb back up to closed at 100 points down.
This is a great example from last Friday action for QQQQ.
QQQQ closed positive on Friday. Is it bull mode? No. It opened way higher and went down till the close. You know what happened this Monday and Tuesday.
Sometimes I wrote my first post for each day can be late. There were times that I have a meeting in the morning on my job. I will try to write my first post each day before the market opens.
ReplyDeleteThis morning, QQQQ, finally, hit the target at 39.07. I had this target 2 weeks ago. It could have hit it sooner if there was no Bernanke's speech and that Friday with option expiration day. We can put that target in the coffin. The target for QQQQ is still stand at 39.80 for a bounce back up.
ReplyDeleteUntil financials can turn around I don't see market moving higher in a real meaningful way. Daily technicals for financials (XLF) showing weakness. There is a gap between 13.02 and 13.16 to the downside. This selloff needs to take XLF to that area. I believe we will reach there by Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteRegarding my comment yesterday, gold diverged from the equity markets, but still it seems to be in no man's land. Daily, weekly or monthly charts don't show any clear bullish signals.
ReplyDeleteSellers trying to hold on to the price while technicals are getting weaker. They will sell it lot lower if they wait.
ReplyDeleteYesterday the market dropped a lots. Today it dropped down to my old target at 39.07 for QQQQ. It bounced back up from there. For shorts, don't get the party started yet. Yesterday was very encouraging day, but I have a hunch the bulls will not give up. There is a possibility that the market could form a base here, trading sideway. If QQQQ bounces back up to 39.80, it could go way back up to 40.30 area.
ReplyDeleteYesterday action was very volatile. Today it is just the opposite. It is trading in a very tight range. One more hour to go yet.
ReplyDeleteThe bears and bulls battled in the tight range. Who won today? I have to give it to the bulls.
ReplyDeleteHere's why.
1. The bulls stop the strong momentum down from yesterday.
2. SPY almost closed where its opened.
3. QQQQ closed higher than its opened.
4. The VIX is down.
5. The dollar is down.
Gold stocks are breaking out.
gcl, I have to disagree with you. When dollar is down that should be bullish for stocks. Stocks are still down, they could not bounce even 1/4 of what they lost yesterday. They may eventually bounce, but I see more selling pressure, when all the economic reportsare coming "better than expected". I would not buy into this market at this point even for trading (holding) for few hours.
ReplyDeleteGood luck.
Sure Mantra, I see you points. I am talking about today action, not forseeable future. Let me tell you about one trap that investors don't get it.
ReplyDeleteWhen stocks are down, it didn't mean the bears won. It usually the bears won in most cases. Today it is not. Vice Versa. Like I said, don't be too bias on side. If the momentum is strong yesterday, why it didn't continue to go down farther. The bulls were able to pause the momemtum. Beside gold stocks were up, there are other stocks were up too. C, RIMM, VMW, QCOM, POT, IPI and others.
There were also a lot of shorts above.
ReplyDeleteSure Mantra, sometimes you can't look at the closing price of the market by itself. You have to look at the price action during the day.
ReplyDeleteLet me give you examples. If the market closed 100 points down, is it automatically a bear mode?
Not in these cases.
1. Opened 100 points down, went lower more than 200 points during the day and climb back up to closed at 100 point down.
2. Opened much lower (more than 200 points) and climb back up to closed at 100 points down.
This is a great example from last Friday action for QQQQ.
QQQQ closed positive on Friday. Is it bull mode?
No. It opened way higher and went down till the close. You know what happened this Monday and Tuesday.