Wednesday, September 16, 2009
September 16th, 2009
The premarket action is slightly up. It will probably gap up this morning. Could this be the blow off top for the bulls? In order to convince the end of the uptrend, we need the market to close in negative and at the yesterday low. Just be careful. It will try to close the morning gap and it could bounce off from there and go higher.
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I was about to stop out of FSLR, but held on. I noticed bears are just keeling over left and right at this point from exhaustion.
ReplyDeleteWell that gap fill was easy.
ReplyDelete106.70 by close.
107.xx by morning if the recent trend continues!
then repeat and repeat
A daily top is forming.
ReplyDeleteI just went short.
In this market, anything goes. If SPY closes below 104.75, we have a strong reversal sign. Right now it tried twice to go higher than this morning high. If SPY closes above 106, the uptrend continues.
ReplyDeleteIf you see lots of companies are getting upgrade, you will know the top is near. The companies are upgraded because the specialists want the last retail investors to get in before the fall. Look for clues like that.
ReplyDeleteAAPL got upgraded by Cramer last night.
ReplyDeleteWow - I had a good call. LOL.
ReplyDeleteLast year's Oct 3/6 gap between 107.62 and 109.68. We are heading there sooner than later.
ReplyDeleteIf the market goes up faster and faster everyday, the bubble will burst. It could be a major short squeeze. If you are long, look for it to about to pop and then sell it. If you don't have any positions, stay on the sidelines. I know it is very tempting to get in for the longs. You might say that I don't want to miss the big runup. For shorts, if you are losing money, hedge your loss.
ReplyDeleteWow talk about rejection at 1065 SPX. Lots of resistance at that level. My guess is that we go lower if the SPX fails to close above 1065.
ReplyDeleteCould we see 3:00 PM selloff?
ReplyDeletebuy the dips until proven wrong.
ReplyDeletestocks just rising
ReplyDeletei have some ultra shorts etf recommended by muathe service 1 month ago, and i wonder if it is too late to get out of them with alot of loss.
gcl, can u recommend the strategy for holding or selling this ultra shorts etf's (srs, faz, eev, dug, tza, ssg)
Shulin, me too in the same position as you. Portfoilo down more than 25% due tl the ultra short etfs. Just confused and dont know what to do.
ReplyDeleteGcl, I had bought QID for our target of SPY at 101.25. Just got stopped out with 10% loss
shulin, you shouldn't get involved with 2x or 3x ETFs. These ETFs are risky.
ReplyDeleteI rather stay with SPY, DIA, QQQQ and QID. The feelings are that lots of investors are expecting some kind of pullback right now. The market keeps on riding higher and higher. The specialists are here to get most investors wrong.
If you are involved with FAZ, you might want to get involved with FAS as wells. Over time, FAS and FAZ will come down to earth and eventually both of them will be below 10 again. Both FAS and FAZ were below 10 not too long ago. Then both of the stocks did 1:10 split to jack up the price again. It will repeat the cycle.
hi gcl,
ReplyDeletei agree about ultra ETF's
This was my mistake to stick to the service recommendation to buy them and keep them, and it did blowed in my face.
I think that maybe it is not the right time to sell them, because i expect for pullback.
But i did expect for pullback more than 1 month !!!
Orcl will reports after close. Let's see how market will spin this.
ReplyDeleteAfter this month, September, earnings season will begin in October. Anything can goes with earning reports. Actually, I want the market to go higher and much higher to burst the bubble. Then we will know what to do after it. If you hold FAZ, QID or SDS and you don't want to sell it for a loss, you could sell a covered call options to collect the premium. That way you will offset your loss.
ReplyDeletegcl, i have no experience with options trading.
ReplyDeletewhat call options u suggest to buy.
can u give example of how to select the proper option using simple methematic
shulin, don't buy call or put options. You have 2 out of 3 ways to lose money.
ReplyDeleteYou rather open a sell call or put option. Time will be on your side and also you collect the premiums right away.
shulin, for example, let's take a look at FAZ.
ReplyDeleteFAZ is right now $20.00 per share. You want to buy FAZ 100 shares at $20.00 per share.
Or
You can open a sell position at 16 strike price at October expiration. You will collect 0.45 as right now. You are getting a discount more than $4 less.