I am back in my office.
Where are we in the market?
This weekend finally I was able to analyze the market more closely for the past week.
On Thursday and Friday the market had panic selling. SPY broke down below 106 level, but it rebounded back above it and close above it. The market is at a major support. The bulls will give the bears a fight here.
I would expect SPY trade between 104.58 (Friday low) and 109 range this week. If SPY trades above 104.58 this week and it has 3 out 5 days are white bars, then you could expect the market will trade back up. There were lots of stop losses right below 106 level last Friday. The specialists triggered all those stop loses and that why SPY went down to 104.58. Then the specialists brought SPY back up.
For bulls perspective, the SPY needs to maintain above 106 level. Most individual stocks are at the major support level. SPY could retest 104.58 to 105 level again. As long as it doesn't make lower low (104.58) this week, the bulls will win the fight. Watch for clues on these stocks.
GOOG support level: 520
X support level: 42
AMZN support level: 115
USO support level: 35
For bears perspective, the market is still in downtrend in short term and the 13 day moving average is point downward. The volume is huge for down days than up days.
Two things to look very closely:
1. The VIX had trouble breaking out of 30 area. The 30 resistance level is the crucial point.
2. The market pattern this year could mimic the same pattern from last year of June and July.
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Your SPY 106 prediction came true. ;)
ReplyDeleteTough hold with about a 2 month wait ;)
losaya
BAS, I knew SPY will hit 106 area again. It is just a matter of time. During that two months, the market wasn't going anywhere. It was trading mostly in tight range.
ReplyDeleteIt is very dangerouse for shorts right now. This market behavior can be the same pattern that we witnessed from June and July timeframe. When the market will not go down farther, the shorts will start to cover. This short covering will bring the market much higher. That is why I stated that it is very important that this week the SPY can't not make lower low than last Friday low.
Watch what happens this week.....
ReplyDeleteyou will be amazed.
I just bought NG at 5.55.
ReplyDeleteMatt,
ReplyDeleteI'm always amazed by the market movement!
But are you thinking about something bigger? Like the Feb 11 Iran announcement might move the markets?
dentr